Will someone meet with Iran by June 30? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 2026-06-30 | 100.0% | $5.4K | $12K | C | 0xd5637e…bc2b | ||
| Jared Kushner | 2026-06-30 | 100.0% | $814 | $7.6K | C | 0xc2afb5…e07e | ||
| Steve Witkoff | 2026-06-30 | 100.0% | $1.7K | $9.7K | C | 0x5a3914…e2fd | ||
| Donald Trump | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $1.1K | $6.9K | C | 0x8c2bbf…181d | ||
| Marco Rubio | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $672 | $6.1K | C | 0x406e0d…6be4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| YES | Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
| NO | Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| YES | Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (5 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-meet-with-iran-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-meet-with-iran-by-june-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-meet-with-iran-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-59R0258406",
"slug": "who-will-meet-with-iran-by-june-30",
"question": "Will someone meet with Iran by June 30?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"politics",
"geopolitics",
"iran-diplomacy",
"us-foreign-policy",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 42915,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}