Will the United States and Iran sign a deal? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2026-08 ]
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 20 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 2026-06-15 | 99.9% | — | $102K | C | 0x3317da…3b35 | ||
| Donald Trump | 2026-06-15 | 99.9% | — | $130K | C | 0xf40089…687f | ||
| Ali Larijani | 2026-06-15 | 0.5% | — | $16K | C | 0xdc2e2b…2d85 | ||
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 2026-06-18 | 99.9% | — | $81K | C | 0x60be3b…19b4 | ||
| Shehbaz Sharif | 2026-06-18 | 99.5% | — | $115K | C | 0x976dc7…e560 | ||
| Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa | 2026-08-01 | 2.4% | — | $28K | C | 0x9de6ee…280f | ||
| Abbas Araghchi | 2026-08-01 | 2.1% | $485 | $164K | C | 0x555443…20bc | ||
| Mohammed bin Salman | 2026-08-01 | 1.7% | $39 | $175K | C | 0x529337…2dc2 | ||
| Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | 2026-08-01 | 1.3% | $2.3K | $211K | C | 0x923869…c828 | ||
| Marco Rubio | 2026-08-01 | 1.2% | $4.5K | $145K | C | 0x654ecf…040a | ||
| Pete Hegseth | 2026-08-01 | 1.0% | $14 | $63K | C | 0x5a012c…6546 | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2026-08-01 | 1.0% | $156 | $86K | C | 0xfda39f…77cb | ||
| Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 2026-08-01 | 0.8% | — | $126K | C | 0x09508d…d230 | ||
| Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah | 2026-08-01 | 0.8% | — | $143K | C | 0x1b0ef6…03fc | ||
| Steve Witkoff | 2026-08-01 | 0.7% | $1.1K | $191K | C | 0x42262c…ccf8 | ||
| Recep Tayyip Erdogan | 2026-08-01 | 0.6% | — | $16K | C | 0x1dbde7…3701 | ||
| King Abdullah II | 2026-08-01 | 0.6% | — | $30K | C | 0xf569ba…5b54 | ||
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 2026-08-01 | 0.4% | $239 | $115K | C | 0xe42fb9…2353 | ||
| Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan | 2026-08-01 | 0.3% | $34 | $36K | C | 0x68212b…d5a0 | ||
| Abdel Fattah el-Sisi | 2026-08-01 | 0.3% | $53 | $12K | C | 0x66314e…2a6b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.
The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.
The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.
Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-sign-uptspt-x-iran-deal-20260612002238373/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-sign-uptspt-x-iran-deal-20260612002238373 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-sign-uptspt-x-iran-deal-20260612002238373") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
"slug": "who-will-sign-uptspt-x-iran-deal-20260612002238373",
"question": "Will the United States and Iran sign a deal?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"politics",
"iran-nuclear-deal",
"us-foreign-policy",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 20,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1984013,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}