Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intelligence? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intelligence by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 51 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intelligence by… | 2026-12-31 | 11.2% | $7.6K | $7.9K | C | 0xf22abd…1327 | ||
| Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $7.9K | $14K | C | 0xb0b240…59b3 | ||
| Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $4.2K | $8.7K | C | 0xb11974…749b | ||
| Will Trump announce John Ratcliffe as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 8.1% | $44 | $324 | C | 0xe10980…17aa | ||
| Will Trump announce Michael Ellis as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 6.3% | $1.2K | $1.6K | C | 0xec14aa…de84 | ||
| Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $2.6K | $13K | C | 0x5ebb60…fe87 | ||
| Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 4.1% | $8.2K | $8.5K | C | 0x9b6b57…ad1a | ||
| Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 3.3% | — | $255 | C | 0x0e0374…6208 | ||
| Will Trump announce Mike Flynn as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 1.3% | — | $152 | C | 0x703a9a…c06c | ||
| Will Trump announce Sebastian Gorka as the next Director of National… | 2026-12-31 | 1.2% | — | $148 | C | 0x88e9e4…237e | ||
| Will Trump announce Stephen Miller as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 1.2% | — | $130 | C | 0x075b2d…b168 | ||
| Will Trump announce Amaryllis Fox Kennedy as the next Director of National… | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | — | $174 | C | 0xd81901…a521 | ||
| Will Trump announce Stacey Dixon as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | — | $274 | C | 0xb3c924…e2d1 | ||
| Will Trump announce Mike Waltz as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | — | $156 | C | 0x119ee7…6021 | ||
| Will Trump announce Derek Harvey as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | — | $254 | C | 0x9ae5c1…87b1 | ||
| Will Trump announce Kash Patel as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | — | $157 | C | 0xf2a36d…6272 | ||
| Will Trump announce John Eisenberg as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $156 | C | 0x41ad5d…f9e3 | ||
| Will Trump announce Richard Grenell as the next Director of National… | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $8.0K | C | 0xb9fa99…7ad5 | ||
| Will Trump announce Robert O’Brien as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $164 | C | 0xdfd76f…5c0a | ||
| Will Trump announce Person D as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9ff5dd…306b | ||
| Will Trump announce Person Q as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x04d1ae…86de | ||
| Will Trump announce Person S as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfca1b5…376f | ||
| Will Trump announce Person T as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2c4a8b…c2a3 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person V as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd0e810…aee7 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person X as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x57cf31…da70 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person AD as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe3989c…fda8 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person AE as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xeea46b…951c | ||
| Will Trump announce Person B as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x614e5c…d389 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person C as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9cbfe4…c90a | ||
| Will Trump announce Person E as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x35d3f5…0561 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person F as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x32e6c9…e215 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person G as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1c600f…bc68 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person H as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x14aa5d…f12a | ||
| Will Trump announce Person I as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x053245…11b0 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person J as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xaffdde…f02d | ||
| Will Trump announce Person K as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8960ce…a72f | ||
| Will Trump announce Person L as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3ebf00…92e3 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person M as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x829ada…5fa1 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person N as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x228458…657b | ||
| Will Trump announce Person O as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe00d06…5cb4 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person P as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x830b44…10d7 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person R as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb1f9d2…e737 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person U as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc1551b…5863 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person W as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x32ee29…e116 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person Y as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x302122…60b7 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person Z as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf496b0…bd88 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person AA as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x289fbc…58ac | ||
| Will Trump announce Person AB as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf93768…3ba5 | ||
| Will Trump announce Person AC as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x47a331…b2af | ||
| Will Trump announce Person AF as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x372cf8…3b30 | ||
| Will Trump announce another person as the next Director of National Intelligence | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfc90a7…a72d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be the next Director of National Intelligence.
An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Director of National Intelligence will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Director of National Intelligence. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify.
Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Director of National Intelligence will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Director of National Intelligence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by December 31”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-director-of-national-intelligence/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-director-of-national-intelligence.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-trump-announce-as-next-director-of-national-intelligence") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RT2VPS5DM7",
"slug": "who-will-trump-announce-as-next-director-of-national-intelligence",
"question": "Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intelligence?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"us-government",
"cabinet-appointment",
"intelligence-agency",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 51,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 64404,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}