Who will Trump announce as the next FDA commissioner? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 33 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Make no announcement for | 2026-12-31 | 35.0% | — | $998 | C | 0xeed933…dbd7 | ||
| Announce Kyle Diamantas as | 2026-12-31 | 14.0% | — | $5.9K | C | 0x872968…7cc8 | ||
| Announce Brett Giroir as | 2026-12-31 | 8.8% | — | $3.0K | C | 0x2f33bf…fb4d | ||
| Announce Sara Brenner as | 2026-12-31 | 7.9% | — | $2.7K | C | 0xc45853…d1ae | ||
| Announce Stephen Hahn as | 2026-12-31 | 5.8% | — | $1.7K | C | 0xaee771…cf7d | ||
| Announce Grace Graham as | 2026-12-31 | 4.2% | — | $4.2K | C | 0xb156a8…2832 | ||
| Announce someone else as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8b1e3b…72dc | ||
| Announce Person A as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc8379f…3664 | ||
| Announce Person B as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0eafb9…0b03 | ||
| Announce Person C as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0e20a5…0ca1 | ||
| Announce Person D as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd45cdd…44ca | ||
| Announce Person E as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc5ff78…036d | ||
| Announce Person F as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x546a96…0d14 | ||
| Announce Person G as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5bb0b8…fc42 | ||
| Announce Person H as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb9fc1b…3138 | ||
| Announce Person I as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe03f71…2539 | ||
| Announce Person J as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3168d2…696c | ||
| Announce Person K as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcb6fc3…f651 | ||
| Announce Person L as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6afedb…68df | ||
| Announce Person M as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7afed2…e869 | ||
| Announce Person N as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3ff061…89cf | ||
| Announce Person O as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc8ef89…c8c0 | ||
| Announce Person P as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc259ab…d320 | ||
| Announce Person Q as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xed490f…aed1 | ||
| Announce Person R as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6a75c7…ed13 | ||
| Announce Person S as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x44f221…c399 | ||
| Announce Person T as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb603fb…73ee | ||
| Announce Person U as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xffd6f6…e7a1 | ||
| Announce Person V as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5bd62e…4eaf | ||
| Announce Person W as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6a2703…8500 | ||
| Announce Person X as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x50f7f5…cb31 | ||
| Announce Person Y as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdd4aeb…dba6 | ||
| Announce Person Z as | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd0ba90…56da |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner.
An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for FDA Commissioner.
Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by December 31”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-fda-commissioner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-fda-commissioner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-trump-announce-as-next-fda-commissioner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GKV5B9N573",
"slug": "who-will-trump-announce-as-next-fda-commissioner",
"question": "Who will Trump announce as the next FDA commissioner?",
"category": "health",
"tags": [
"health",
"politics",
"trump",
"fda",
"regulatory-appointment",
"us-executive-branch"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 33,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 18466,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}