Will Trump publicly insult someone by June 30? [ resolves 2026-06-30 (27D) ]
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 26 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 99.8% | $41K | $89K | C | 0xfa0086…cbf7 | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 99.8% | $42K | $94K | C | 0x5e75ae…657f | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 99.5% | $32K | $254K | C | 0xdd07c7…5a41 | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 99.3% | — | $2.4K | C | 0xd0d976…28af | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 90.0% | $1.3K | $7.4K | C | 0xed7f1a…d727 | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Norah O'Donnell by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 75.0% | $5 | $305 | C | 0x489d3e…c706 | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 72.0% | $71 | $120 | C | 0x9f59bb…d776 | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 67.0% | $487 | $1.5K | C | 0x933518…54ff | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 57.0% | $59 | $727 | C | 0xaa1310…51ef | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 57.0% | $59 | $62 | C | 0x3debb9…d2ac | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 41.0% | $192 | $818 | C | 0xac445a…0e1c | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 39.0% | $10 | $317 | C | 0x62bf48…21ec | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 28.0% | $20 | $360 | C | 0xa89dab…22fe | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 19.0% | $780 | $3.1K | C | 0x79a721…dcd8 | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 16.0% | $3.1K | $6.9K | C | 0x8b08f0…5ba2 | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 16.0% | $11 | $203 | C | 0x60ae47…7578 | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 13.0% | — | $441 | C | 0x526530…6c16 | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 10.0% | $253 | $1.4K | C | 0xa237d7…fe1f | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 8.0% | $1.2K | $2.4K | C | 0x001588…538e | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 7.0% | $170 | $544 | C | 0xb5b5c3…f079 | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 6.0% | $181 | $1.9K | C | 0x65028a…ea89 | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 6.0% | $17 | $1.4K | C | 0x4071be…70c2 | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 5.0% | $57 | $2.7K | C | 0x7530e4…e9f7 | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 4.0% | $13 | $1.1K | C | 0xdc4000…9f6c | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 2.5% | $2.2K | $7.7K | C | 0x86a611…e0d4 | ||
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 2.1% | $156 | $2.5K | C | 0x23468c…8aa0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-june-30.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TBQM38TJX6",
"slug": "who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-june-30",
"question": "Will Trump publicly insult someone by June 30?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"2026",
"public-statements",
"celebrity-insults",
"behavioral-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 26,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 484060,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 20,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}