Will Trump publicly praise someone in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolved 2026-07-31 ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Kavanaugh | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | — | $796 | C | 0x799459…61f7 | ||
| King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | — | $1.5K | C | 0x7245ca…d6b2 | ||
| Sheikh Tamim al-Thani | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | — | $2.1K | C | 0x7f2f3c…2b2c | ||
| Mark Rutte | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | — | $2.0K | C | 0xf11db1…4938 | ||
| Elon Musk | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | — | $16K | C | 0x210d38…d6e6 | ||
| Dana White | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | — | $1.2K | C | 0xfd5157…bb0f | ||
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | — | $4.8K | C | 0xc1cdd9…02ef | ||
| Lionel Messi | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | — | $1.7K | C | 0x13d472…49ee | ||
| Gianni Infantino | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | — | $507 | C | 0xac8472…6297 | ||
| Weijia Jiang | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | — | $3.3K | C | 0x69fccc…315c | ||
| Susan Dell | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | — | $499 | C | 0x7a9a77…117d | ||
| Delcy Rodriguez | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | — | $640 | C | 0x1a0ab4…59aa | ||
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | — | $1.8K | C | 0xde0060…c7e6 | ||
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | — | $1.2K | C | 0x1adb6d…c94a | ||
| Zohran Mamdani | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $272 | C | 0x1c2f60…cb56 | ||
| Emmanuel Macron | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $338 | C | 0xa9ab1a…39f8 | ||
| Ursula von der Leyen | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $20 | C | 0x3e9030…4e1b | ||
| Vladimir Putin | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $68 | C | 0x1c91a1…503f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying statement includes any remark by Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or endorsement of the listed individual personally or professionally. This can include direct praise (e.g., “He/She is smart,” “He’s/She's a great leader”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“impressive,” “strong,” “brilliant,” “doing a great job”) made in reference to the listed individual.
Any statement that clearly expresses approval, admiration, or endorsement of the listed individual personally qualifies for this market regardless of context (e.g., "He/She is very smart, but he/she doesn’t seem to know that this policy will harm more of his/her constituents." would qualify).
General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “We had a good meeting”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
public statements from Donald Trump from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump praise Ursula von der Leyen by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| YES | Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-07-24 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-07-18 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump praise Elon Musk by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-07-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump praise Dana White by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-07-13 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump praise Brett Kavanaugh by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-07-13 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump praise Mark Rutte by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-07-08 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump praise Ahmed al-Sharaa by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-07-08 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump praise Cristiano Ronaldo by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-07-07 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump praise Recep Tayyip Erdoğan by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-07-07 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump praise King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-07-07 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump praise Sheikh Tamim al-Thani by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-07-07 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-07-07 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump praise Susan Dell by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-07-07 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (18 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-july-31-20260626214328031/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-july-31-20260626214328031 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-july-31-20260626214328031") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VC79V9TK22",
"slug": "who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-july-31-20260626214328031",
"question": "Will Trump publicly praise someone in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"politics",
"public-statements",
"2026",
"praise-prediction",
"social-media"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 38707,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "public statements from Donald Trump",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}