Will Trump publicly praise someone in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-07 ]
Will Trump praise Ursula von der Leyen by July 31?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susan Dell | 2026-07-07 | 99.8% | — | $499 | C | 0x7a9a77…117d | ||
| Gianni Infantino | 2026-07-07 | 99.9% | — | $507 | C | 0xac8472…6297 | ||
| King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud | 2026-07-07 | 99.9% | — | $1.5K | C | 0x7245ca…d6b2 | ||
| Sheikh Tamim al-Thani | 2026-07-07 | 99.9% | — | $2.1K | C | 0x7f2f3c…2b2c | ||
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 2026-07-07 | 99.9% | — | $1.2K | C | 0x1adb6d…c94a | ||
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 2026-07-07 | 99.9% | — | $4.8K | C | 0xc1cdd9…02ef | ||
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 2026-07-08 | 99.9% | — | $1.8K | C | 0xde0060…c7e6 | ||
| Mark Rutte | 2026-07-08 | 99.9% | — | $2.0K | C | 0xf11db1…4938 | ||
| Brett Kavanaugh | 2026-07-13 | 99.8% | — | $796 | C | 0x799459…61f7 | ||
| Dana White | 2026-07-13 | 99.9% | — | $1.2K | C | 0xfd5157…bb0f | ||
| Elon Musk | 2026-07-16 | 99.8% | — | $16K | C | 0x210d38…d6e6 | ||
| Lionel Messi | 2026-07-18 | 99.9% | — | $1.7K | C | 0x13d472…49ee | ||
| Weijia Jiang | 2026-07-31 | 59.1% | — | $3.3K | C | 0x69fccc…315c | ||
| Vladimir Putin | 2026-07-31 | 59.0% | — | $68 | C | 0x1c91a1…503f | ||
| Delcy Rodriguez | 2026-07-31 | 38.0% | — | $640 | C | 0x1a0ab4…59aa | ||
| Emmanuel Macron | 2026-07-31 | 11.0% | — | $338 | C | 0xa9ab1a…39f8 | ||
| Zohran Mamdani | 2026-07-31 | 6.0% | — | $272 | C | 0x1c2f60…cb56 | ||
| Ursula von der Leyen | 2026-07-31 | — | — | $20 | C | 0x3e9030…4e1b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying statement includes any remark by Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or endorsement of the listed individual personally or professionally. This can include direct praise (e.g., “He/She is smart,” “He’s/She's a great leader”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“impressive,” “strong,” “brilliant,” “doing a great job”) made in reference to the listed individual.
Any statement that clearly expresses approval, admiration, or endorsement of the listed individual personally qualifies for this market regardless of context (e.g., "He/She is very smart, but he/she doesn’t seem to know that this policy will harm more of his/her constituents." would qualify).
General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “We had a good meeting”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- public statements from Donald Trump from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-july-31-20260626214328031/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-july-31-20260626214328031 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-july-31-20260626214328031") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VC79V9TK22",
"slug": "who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-july-31-20260626214328031",
"question": "Will Trump publicly praise someone in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"politics",
"public-statements",
"2026",
"praise-prediction",
"social-media"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 38707,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "public statements from Donald Trump",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}