Will someone visit Ukraine by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Witkoff | 2026-12-31 | 84.0% | — | $2.1K | C | 0x6b1d2d…3e20 | ||
| Jared Kushner | 2026-12-31 | 77.0% | — | $1.8K | C | 0x24e3c4…fcee | ||
| Andy Burnham | 2026-12-31 | 70.0% | — | $2.8K | C | 0xc35a02…9936 | ||
| Donald Tusk | 2026-12-31 | 69.0% | $11 | $172 | C | 0xdcf959…a97c | ||
| Ursula von der Leyen | 2026-12-31 | 66.0% | $26 | $2.1K | C | 0x034c38…9cfb | ||
| António Costa | 2026-12-31 | 66.0% | — | $3.1K | C | 0x84c1bc…c9bd | ||
| Keith Kellogg | 2026-12-31 | 66.0% | — | $1.7K | C | 0x4ee953…07ac | ||
| Mark Rutte | 2026-12-31 | 65.0% | — | $216 | C | 0x869986…cdfa | ||
| Maia Sandu | 2026-12-31 | 57.0% | $50 | $1.5K | C | 0x919883…73ee | ||
| Friedrich Merz | 2026-12-31 | 51.0% | — | $759 | C | 0xc0a0bf…877f | ||
| Emmanuel Macron | 2026-12-31 | 40.0% | — | $231 | C | 0x2b317b…d8c2 | ||
| Mark Carney | 2026-12-31 | 32.0% | — | $2.3K | C | 0xf129a4…fe73 | ||
| António Guterres | 2026-12-31 | 23.0% | — | $1.8K | C | 0x3fbb7e…1ef8 | ||
| Donald Trump | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | — | $63K | C | 0x2955f6…9ffe | ||
| JD Vance | 2026-12-31 | 4.5% | $24 | $52K | C | 0x71fa0b…4a78 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-visit-ukraine-by-december-31-20260729205841876/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-visit-ukraine-by-december-31-20260729205841876 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-visit-ukraine-by-december-31-20260729205841876") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
"slug": "who-will-visit-ukraine-by-december-31-20260729205841876",
"question": "Will someone visit Ukraine by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"ukraine",
"diplomatic-visits",
"2026",
"european-leadership",
"conflict-zone-travel"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 135506,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 56,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}