Will the Democratic Party win the WI-07 House seat? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- WI-07 Democratic win priced out at 4% 4% · $16K 24h
- Polymarket holds Democrats at 4% in WI-07, market treats the seat as effectively off the board.
- 24h volume of $15K is 32% of all-time contract flow, a notable mid-cycle acceleration.
- Paired spike with FL-18 at identical odds suggests broad House seat scanning, not district-specific news.
- Resolves on November 2026 general election outcome.
- WI-07 Democratic long shot holds at 4% on fresh volume 4% · $16K 24h
- Polymarket marks a Democratic win in WI-07 at 4%, treating this northwestern Wisconsin seat as solidly Republican.
- 24h volume is 32% of all-time, reflecting a notable one-day concentration well ahead of November.
- WI-07 has trended Republican in recent cycles; attention here may reflect House-map traders repricing district-level tail risk.
- Resolves on November 2026 House general election results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/wi-07-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/wi-07-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("wi-07-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y39KV4JZ48",
"slug": "wi-07-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Democratic Party win the WI-07 House seat?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"wisconsin",
"2026-election",
"congressional-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19828,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}