Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top a set threshold? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 4 markets
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
Rankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).
Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · single authority
- coingecko.com source of record venue-listed
- CoinGecko from rules text · editorial
- https://www.coingecko.com/ from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-a-coin-launched-in-2026-end-the-year-in-the-top/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-a-coin-launched-in-2026-end-the-year-in-the-top |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-a-coin-launched-in-2026-end-the-year-in-the-top") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-112QRNCGD6",
"slug": "will-a-coin-launched-in-2026-end-the-year-in-the-top",
"question": "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto-prices",
"crypto",
"ranking",
"altcoins-new",
"market-cap",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21861,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 63,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "coingecko.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "coingecko.com",
"url": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CoinGecko",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}