CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top a set threshold? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]

polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 4 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 5 2027-01-01 39.7%
$3.2K
C 0x953a75…aedb
10 2027-01-01 14.0%
$11K
C 0x45194a…145b
20 2027-01-01 19.0%
$4.9K
C 0xb6ad0a…5f94
50 2027-01-01 70.0%
$3.1K
C 0x506f21…d519
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers not provided not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 4 markets · share this text
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Rankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.
platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned
sources (3) · single authority
  • coingecko.com source of record venue-listed
  • CoinGecko from rules text · editorial
  • https://www.coingecko.com/ from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-a-coin-launched-in-2026-end-the-year-in-the-top/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-a-coin-launched-in-2026-end-the-year-in-the-top
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("will-a-coin-launched-in-2026-end-the-year-in-the-top")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-112QRNCGD6",
  "slug": "will-a-coin-launched-in-2026-end-the-year-in-the-top",
  "question": "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto-prices",
    "crypto",
    "ranking",
    "altcoins-new",
    "market-cap",
    "2027"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 21861,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 63,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "commitment_committed_secondhand"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "coingecko.com",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "coingecko.com",
      "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CoinGecko",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →