Will a US ally acquire nuclear weapons by 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 4.2% | — | $52K | C | 0x17ba5a…c428 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/ sources (4)
- state.gov venue-listed
- international nuclear agencies from rules text · editorial
- a claimant government from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible global news sources from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Tail risk stacks in US-ally nuclear acquisition by 2027 6% · $57K 24h
- Price at 6%, a small but non-trivial tail probability assigned to a US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027.
- 24h volume $57K is 52% of all-time, suggesting renewed institutional attention to a previously thin contract.
- Context likely includes Middle East security architecture debates and reported Saudi-Israeli normalization contingencies.
- Contract resolves if any recognized US ally successfully tests or declares a nuclear device before Jan 1 2027.
- Flows price a US ally acquiring a nuke before 2027 as remote 10% · $37K 24h
- Polymarket at 10%, one-in-ten probability a US ally achieves nuclear capability before year-end.
- $37K in 24h is 84% of all-time volume; contract essentially debuted this session.
- South Korea and Saudi Arabia most likely candidates given ongoing nuclear program discussions.
- Resolves end of 2026; contract captures tail risk around accelerated proliferation timelines.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-P394L6GV45",
"slug": "will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027",
"question": "Will a US ally acquire nuclear weapons by 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"nuclear-proliferation",
"us-allies",
"geopolitics",
"2026",
"international-security",
"trump"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 51592,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 10,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "state.gov",
"url": "https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "international nuclear agencies",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a claimant government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible global news sources",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}