Will the AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? [ resolves 2026-09-06 (62D) ]
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt | 2026-09-06 | 44.0% | $1.1K | $72K | A | 0x5187c6…d6e8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de venue-listed
- official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-afd-win-an-absolute-majority-of-seats-in-sachsen-anhalt/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-afd-win-an-absolute-majority-of-seats-in-sachsen-anhalt |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-afd-win-an-absolute-majority-of-seats-in-sachsen-anhalt") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-SQXZ094JX1",
"slug": "will-afd-win-an-absolute-majority-of-seats-in-sachsen-anhalt",
"question": "Will the AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"germany",
"saxony-anhalt",
"afd",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 71718,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de",
"url": "https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}