Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by December 31, 2027? [ resolves 2027-12-31 (526D) ]
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by… | 2027-12-31 | 11.0% | — | $91K | C | 0x7cff26…c984 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (3)
- International Criminal Court ("ICC") from rules text · editorial
- International Court of Justice ("ICJ") from rules text · editorial
- ad hoc international tribunal from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-an-international-court-find-israel-or-its-leaders-guilty-of-genocide-by-december-31-2027-20260629142909679/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-an-international-court-find-israel-or-its-leaders-guilty-of-genocide-by-december-31-2027-20260629142909679 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-an-international-court-find-israel-or-its-leaders-guilty-of-genocide-by-december-31-2027-20260629142909679") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8M61X764X7",
"slug": "will-an-international-court-find-israel-or-its-leaders-guilty-of-genocide-by-december-31-2027-20260629142909679",
"question": "Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by December 31, 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"international-law",
"genocide-accountability",
"israel-palestine",
"icc-icj",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 91399,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 28,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "International Criminal Court (\"ICC\")",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "International Court of Justice (\"ICJ\")",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "ad hoc international tribunal",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}