Will Anthropic acquire Bitcoin by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31	2026-12-31	69.0%		$643	$144K		C	`0x5c0d7c…89d3`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	Coingecko (consensus fallback)	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 1 market · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead. For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

platform source field polymarket.description → https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-anthropic-flip-btc-by-december-31/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-anthropic-flip-btc-by-december-31.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("will-anthropic-flip-btc-by-december-31")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSKC0W6LK9",
  "slug": "will-anthropic-flip-btc-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will Anthropic acquire Bitcoin by December 31?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "crypto-prices",
    "ai-company-finance",
    "bitcoin-valuation",
    "market-cap-comparison",
    "tech-2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 144314,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 46,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Coingecko (consensus fallback)",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin",
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →