Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 72.0% | $881 | $148K | C | 0x5c0d7c…89d3 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead.
For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin sources (5)
- coingecko.com venue-listed
- CoinGecko from rules text · editorial
- CoinMarketCap from rules text · editorial
- Anthropic from rules text · editorial
- credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-anthropic-flip-btc-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-anthropic-flip-btc-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-anthropic-flip-btc-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MSKC0W6LK9",
"slug": "will-anthropic-flip-btc-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"crypto-prices",
"ai-company-finance",
"bitcoin-valuation",
"market-cap-comparison",
"tech-2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 147708,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 37,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "coingecko.com",
"url": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CoinGecko",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "CoinMarketCap",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}