Will any AI model reach a target Math Arena Score in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-05 – 2026-12 ]
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control sources (4) · single authority
- arena.ai venue-listed
- Arena.AI Leaderboard source of record from rules text · editorial
- Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard from rules text · editorial
- arena.ai/leaderboard/text from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-any-ai-model-reach-math-arena-score-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-any-ai-model-reach-math-arena-score-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-any-ai-model-reach-math-arena-score-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0MTRR13JP1",
"slug": "will-any-ai-model-reach-math-arena-score-by-december-31",
"question": "Will any AI model reach a target Math Arena Score in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"tech",
"ai-benchmarks",
"machine-learning",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 74511,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 87,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "arena.ai",
"url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}