AI model highest Overall Arena Score, September 30, 2026 [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-09 ]
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text sources (4) · single authority
lmarena.ai venue-listed Arena.AI Leaderboard from rules text arena.ai/leaderboard/text from rules text Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard committed source
recent wire items
- Traders back AI hitting 1520 score before September 30 93% · $21K 24h
- Polymarket prices the September 30 deadline at 93%, near-consensus that the threshold will be crossed imminently.
- 24h volume of $20K is 41% of all-time flow, a substantial single-session concentration.
- This contract shares thematic overlap with the January 2027 version, suggesting a specific model release is the catalyst.
- Resolves if any AI model achieves a 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-61DHJLFR26",
"slug": "will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30",
"question": "AI model highest Overall Arena Score, September 30, 2026",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"tech",
"ai-benchmarks",
"performance-threshold",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 148820,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 87,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "lmarena.ai",
"url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}