Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (73D) ]
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil… | 2026-10-04 | 11.0% | $148 | $98K | A | 0x087469…7b61 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- dadosabertos.tse.jus.br source of record venue-listed
- Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-brazil-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-brazil-election |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-brazil-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8LNS25ZJL1",
"slug": "will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-brazil-election",
"question": "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazil-election",
"2026",
"first-round-voting",
"electoral-mechanics",
"presidency"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 97875,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
"url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}