Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 45.0% | $15 | $428K | C | 0xdcae95…b9c2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.
If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (5) · single authority
fr.tradingview.com venue-listed tradingview.com venue-listed TradingView committed source https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT from rules text https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD from rules text
recent wire items
- Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 holds near 50% Polymarket 41%
- The Polymarket contract puts 41% odds on bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026, resolved via uma_oracle; the Kalshi equivalent (CM-EVT-FMPY92KRH8) sits at 45%.
- JPMorgan's bullish decade-long bitcoin projection is not fully priced in: both Polymarket and Kalshi still put the outcome as a slight underdog for 2026 specifically.
- Bitcoin trading near $83,000 with gold still strongly positioned year-to-date means the market is not dismissing JPMorgan's view but is not treating it as a 2026 near-term call either.
- The Polymarket contract on bitcoin outperforming both gold and the S&P 500 (CM-EVT-3HDQG11JV0) sits at only 21%, showing the market sees a two-front outperformance as significantly harder than beating gold alone.
- Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 holds near 37 percent Polymarket 37%
- Polymarket prices Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 at 37%, keeping Bitcoin the underdog against gold on an annual return basis.
- Treasury dropping the unhosted wallet reporting rules is a regulatory positive for crypto, but the contract remains well below 50%, signaling the market is not yet convinced it shifts Bitcoin's full-year trajectory.
- Bitcoin near $83,000 is roughly 34% below its all-time high (per Story 32), and gold's relative stability in a risk-off macro environment explains the sub-50% pricing.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-FMPY92KRH8) on the same question sits at 48%, a notable 11-percentage-point gap versus Polymarket, suggesting meaningful cross-venue disagreement on Bitcoin's year-end prospects.
- Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 holds near 50 percent Polymarket 41%
- Polymarket puts 41% odds on Bitcoin outperforming gold in full-year 2026, just below even money heading into Q4.
- Bitcoin's 42% Q3 gain is a strong tailwind, but the sub-50% price signals markets are not yet convinced the annual outperformance case is closed.
- A parallel Kalshi contract on the same question sits at 42%, showing rare cross-venue alignment and limiting arbitrage opportunity.
- A three-asset Polymarket contract -- Bitcoin outperforming both gold and the S&P 500 -- prices at only 26%, revealing the equity comparison is the binding constraint.
- Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 27%
- Polymarket contract puts 27% odds on Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026, a long-shot position.
- The Coldcard PRNG vulnerability and associated BTC drainage are a security shock consistent with the market holding Bitcoin at a discount to gold on a 2026 performance basis; trading volume on this contract surged 322x day over day.
- Bitcoin is trading near $63K with the market implying less than 13% odds of reaching $100K by September 1 (CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99), reinforcing the bearish near-term stack.
- Resolution: Polymarket UMA oracle settles based on comparative Bitcoin versus gold price performance over the 2026 calendar year.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TKKW1QZRK9",
"slug": "will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-2026",
"question": "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-vs-gold",
"crypto-prices",
"asset-performance",
"cryptocurrency",
"2027-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 428210,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "TradingView",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fr.tradingview.com",
"url": "https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "tradingview.com",
"url": "https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "TradingView",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}