Will Democrats win all four core Senate races? [ resolved 2026-11-03 ]
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races | 2026-11-03 | 99.5% | — | $14K | A | 0x096f26…97a9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text
recent wire items
- Democrats winning all four core Senate races stays near 50% Polymarket 69%
- Polymarket puts Democrats winning all four core Senate races at 69%, with trading volume up 7,768% day over day, signaling heavy Election Day activity.
- The surge in volume reflects real-time polling and early vote data flow; the 69% probability places Democrats as clear but not overwhelming favorites.
- Companion Polymarket contract on Senate control overall sits at 78% for Democrats, slightly higher than the all-four-races sweep, implying path-dependency risk.
- Resolution via Polymarket UMA oracle once all four race calls are certified; a split outcome in any single race resolves the contract No.
- Democrats sweeping all four core Senate races sits near 50 percent Polymarket 50%
- The Polymarket contract on Democrats winning all four core Senate races prices at exactly 50%, reflecting maximum uncertainty.
- GOP distancing from Trump on the economy and Iran (Story 15) is consistent with a competitive Senate map, matching the even-odds pricing.
- The Kalshi contract on Republicans holding at least one chamber at 60% (Story 11) implies markets expect partial GOP retention even if Democrats sweep key Senate contests.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the 50% price signals no directional consensus ahead of election night.
- Democrats winning all four core Senate races sits near 50 percent Polymarket 48%
- The Polymarket prediction market prices Democrats winning all four core Senate races at 48%, essentially a coin flip.
- The AP story on Republican anxiety about their spending advantage is consistent with the market sitting just below 50%; no strong consensus has formed either way.
- Nonpartisan forecasters have shifted several congressional contests toward Democrats in recent days, which aligns with the near-50% Democratic Senate pricing.
- Resolution via uma_oracle; all four named core Senate races must be won by Democratic candidates for a YES settlement.
- Democrats winning all four core Senate seats near 50% Polymarket 54%
- Polymarket prices a 54% chance Democrats win all four core Senate races, barely above a coin flip.
- Poll leads in multiple red states support a Democratic path, but the all-four-wins requirement keeps the Polymarket contract near 50%.
- The gap between the 87% blue-wave Kalshi contract and this 54% contract reflects how difficult a clean sweep of all four targets remains.
- Resolution via UMA oracle after November election results are confirmed.
- Democrats winning all four core Senate races stays near 50% Polymarket 52%
- Polymarket puts 52% on Democrats winning all four core Senate races, essentially a coin-flip.
- Polling showing Democratic gains in Republican territory is consistent with the near-even pricing; the market is not discounting the Democratic momentum.
- The Kalshi companion contract on the same sweep stands at 51%, with near-zero cross-venue spread, indicating high consensus at the toss-up level.
- Both contracts resolve on certified results from the four named Senate races; a single Republican hold in any of the four flips the contract to NO.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-democrats-win-all-core-four-senate-races/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-democrats-win-all-core-four-senate-races |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-democrats-win-all-core-four-senate-races") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-P54SDG6NP7",
"slug": "will-democrats-win-all-core-four-senate-races",
"question": "Will Democrats win all four core Senate races?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-senate",
"2026-midterms",
"democratic-party",
"swing-seats"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14070,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}