Will El Salvador hold $1 billion or more of Bitcoin by the settlement date? [ resolves 2025-10 – 2027-01 ]
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- intel.arkm.com venue-listed
- ARKHAM INTEL tracker source of record from rules text · editorial
- Official announcements form the government of El Salvador from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? | polymarket | 2026-01-01 | — |
| closed | Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by September 30? | polymarket | 2025-10-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-el-salvador-hold-1b-of-btc-by-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-el-salvador-hold-1b-of-btc-by-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-el-salvador-hold-1b-of-btc-by-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HM4KZN3DX8",
"slug": "will-el-salvador-hold-1b-of-btc-by-by",
"question": "Will El Salvador hold $1 billion or more of Bitcoin by the settlement date?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin",
"el-salvador",
"macro-btc",
"2025"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 83570,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ARKHAM INTEL tracker",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "intel.arkm.com",
"url": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ARKHAM INTEL tracker",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Official announcements form the government of El Salvador",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}