Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? [ resolves 2025-09 – 2027-01 ]

Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?

polymarket: [B] reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 3 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
≥ $1,000,000,000	2025-09-30	100.0%	—	$14K	B	`0x122851…1564`
≥ $1,000,000,000	2025-09-30	100.0%	—	$60K	B	`0x760d0b…5fa3`
≥ $1,000,000,000	2027-01-01	22.0%	—	$9.0K	B	`0x59cbdc…3de8`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	intel.arkm.com	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 3 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.

platform source field polymarket.description → https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-el-salvador-hold-1b-of-btc-by-by/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-el-salvador-hold-1b-of-btc-by-by.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("will-el-salvador-hold-1b-of-btc-by-by")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HM4KZN3DX8",
  "slug": "will-el-salvador-hold-1b-of-btc-by-by",
  "question": "Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "bitcoin",
    "el-salvador",
    "macro-btc",
    "2025"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 3,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 83410,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 64,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "intel.arkm.com",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador",
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →