Will GBP/USD hit 1.25 (Low) in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $239 | B | 0xe0701d…2125 | ||
| ≤ 1.1 | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $25 | B | 0x7993ef…eb91 | ||
| ≤ 1.2 | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $45 | B | 0x4b35aa…2f8b | ||
| ≤ 1.25 | 2026-12-31 | 39.0% | — | $37K | B | 0x180ed5…8ce3 | ||
| ≤ 1.3 | 2026-12-31 | 72.0% | — | $1.5K | B | 0xd24a13…5119 | ||
| ≥ 1.4 | 2026-12-31 | 74.0% | — | $4 | B | 0xf423fe…36b3 | ||
| ≥ 1.45 | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $3.4K | B | 0xa24570…22eb | ||
| ≥ 1.5 | 2026-12-31 | 50.0% | — | $28 | B | 0x4576f8…eccb | ||
| ≥ 1.55 | 2026-12-31 | — | — | — | B | 0x4a3de3…9df0 | ||
| ≥ 1.6 | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | — | $15K | B | 0xf80dd4…a685 | ||
| ≥ 1.7 | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $942 | B | 0xb455f2…a418 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | investing.com | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any GBP/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday.
This market will resolve as soon as any finalized GBP/USD hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the GBP/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/gbp-usd-chart).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.investing.com/currencies/gbp-usd-chart recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-gbpusd-hit-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-gbpusd-hit-in-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-gbpusd-hit-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KT9PQWHPJ3",
"slug": "will-gbpusd-hit-in-2026",
"question": "Will GBP/USD hit 1.25 (Low) in 2026?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"finance",
"forex",
"gbp-usd",
"currency-pair",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 58028,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "investing.com",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.investing.com/currencies/gbp-usd-chart",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}