Will ground beef reach $__ per pound in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Bls | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112 recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6",
"slug": "will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026",
"question": "Will ground beef reach $__ per pound in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"inflation",
"commodity-prices",
"food-prices",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19251,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bls",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}