Will ground beef reach $__ per pound in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by strike

polymarket 4 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
≥ 7%	2026-12-31	92.0%	—	$50	A	`0x49ee62…dc4f`
≥ 8%	2026-12-31	72.0%	—	$1.5K	A	`0x4d9263…cda0`
≥ 9%	2026-12-31	41.0%	—	$22	A	`0xd20b5d…c307`
≥ 10%	2026-12-31	43.0%	$46	$18K	A	`0x4f1e6d…3c21`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	Bls	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 4 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

platform source field polymarket.description → https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6",
  "slug": "will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026",
  "question": "Will ground beef reach $__ per pound in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "inflation",
    "commodity-prices",
    "food-prices",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 19251,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 84,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Bls",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →