Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? [ resolves 2025-11 – 2026-06 ]
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30 | 2025-11-30 | 100.0% | — | $173K | C | 0xe253db…5423 | ||
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31 | 2025-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $1.14M | C | 0x11db07…3c40 | ||
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by February 28 | 2026-03-31 | 1.1% | — | $13K | C | 0xc00af5…d046 | ||
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31 | 2026-03-31 | 0.2% | — | $275K | C | 0x48d65c…345b | ||
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 5.0% | $1.7K | $260K | C | 0x2cd4df…e6b7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NGWGHQ31H1",
"slug": "will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"disarmament",
"hamas",
"israel-palestine",
"2025"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1861437,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 13,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}