Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $508 | $80K | C | 0x794fbb…cfe0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from the Israeli government from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Israel annexing West Bank before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 4%
- Polymarket contract on Israel annexing West Bank territory before 2027 sits at 4%, putting long odds on formal annexation this year.
- Smotrich's public annexation call drew immediate UAE rebuke, but prediction markets show the rhetoric is not shifting the probability of actual annexation.
- UAE, which normalized ties with Israel in 2020, signaling regional cost of annexation; markets appear to price diplomatic friction as a cap on action.
- Resolution via UMA oracle; contract requires formal annexation action, not ministerial statements, to resolve yes.
- Israel annexing West Bank before 2027 stays near long-shot odds Polymarket 4%
- Polymarket prices Israel annexing West Bank territory before 2027 at just 4%, keeping formal annexation a heavy long shot.
- The military construction in occupied Syrian territory is an escalation, but the market distinguishes this from formal annexation of the West Bank; prices are consistent with that distinction.
- Trading volume on this contract is up 4,424% day over day, a large surge suggesting the Syrian military line news is drawing fresh attention to broader Israeli territorial questions.
- Resolution via Polymarket's uma_oracle; the contract requires formal annexation of West Bank territory, a legally distinct act from military positioning in Syria.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-israel-annex-west-bank-territory-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-israel-annex-west-bank-territory-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-israel-annex-west-bank-territory-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FZLNPNYSY4",
"slug": "will-israel-annex-west-bank-territory-before-2027",
"question": "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"israel-palestine",
"territorial-dispute",
"middle-east",
"2026",
"international-law"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 79870,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the Israeli government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}