Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office by 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | — | $15K | C | 0x20bcdd…a8d7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jake Paul announces that he will run for any public office in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any public office refers to any elected government office in the United States, including at the federal, local, or state level.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Jake Paul; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official announcements from Jake Paul from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-jake-paul-announce-a-run-for-public-office-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-jake-paul-announce-a-run-for-public-office-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-jake-paul-announce-a-run-for-public-office-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PW6JXRBZN1",
"slug": "will-jake-paul-announce-a-run-for-public-office-in-2026",
"question": "Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"celebrity-politics",
"2026",
"us-elections",
"public-office",
"announcement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14524,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official announcements from Jake Paul",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}