Will Knots flip Bitcoin Core by the settlement date? [ resolves 2026-01 – 2027-01 ]
Will knots flip bitcoin core by December 31?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the number of Bitcoin Knots nodes exceeds the number of Bitcoin Core nodes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is https://coin.dance/nodes/all, specifically the “Bitcoin Nodes” chart set to “MTD.”
Resolution will be based on the node counts displayed when hovering over each date for Bitcoin Core Nodes and Bitcoin Knots Nodes.
A data point for a given day will be considered finalized once data for the following day is published.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source or public data consistent with the official Bitcoin node counts.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://coin.dance/nodes/all sources (2) · single authority
- coin.dance venue-listed
- https://coin.dance/nodes/all source of record from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will knots flip bitcoin core by December 31? | polymarket | 2026-01-02 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-knots-flip-bitcoin-core-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-knots-flip-bitcoin-core-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-knots-flip-bitcoin-core-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DCGKL8Z594",
"slug": "will-knots-flip-bitcoin-core-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Knots flip Bitcoin Core by the settlement date?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin",
"knots-protocol",
"blockchain-adoption",
"market-dominance",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 38167,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 65,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://coin.dance/nodes/all",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "https://coin.dance/nodes/all",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "coin.dance",
"url": "https://coin.dance/nodes/all",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://coin.dance/nodes/all",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}