Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? [ resolves 2027-01-03 (164D) ]
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends | 2027-01-03 | 32.0% | $209K | $680K | A | 0x15d2e6…fa1b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · single authority
- official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Heavy trading backs McConnell Senate exit at 41% 41% · $230K 24h
- Market prices a 41% chance McConnell vacates his seat before term ends, near coin-flip territory.
- Polymarket logs $230K in 24h, equal to 33% of all-time volume, a sharp single-session concentration.
- Fresh attention on a sitting senator's tenure signals traders are pricing real near-term event risk.
- Resolves YES if McConnell formally steps down before his Senate term expires.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-mitch-mcconnell-resign-from-the-senate-before-his-term-ends/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-mitch-mcconnell-resign-from-the-senate-before-his-term-ends |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-mitch-mcconnell-resign-from-the-senate-before-his-term-ends") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9DBYNLBPG3",
"slug": "will-mitch-mcconnell-resign-from-the-senate-before-his-term-ends",
"question": "Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"congress",
"senate-leadership",
"mitch-mcconnell",
"us-senate",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 680057,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}