Will Nigel Farage increase his vote share in Clacton? [ resolves 2027-06-30 (342D) ]
Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton | 2027-06-30 | 94.4% | $1.3K | $16K | B | 0xf64012…7ce9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · stated precedence rule
- tendringdc.gov.uk source of record venue-listed
- parliament.uk venue-listed
- Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) from rules text · editorial
- UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-nigel-farage-up-his-vote-share-in-clacton-20260707171746907/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-nigel-farage-up-his-vote-share-in-clacton-20260707171746907 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-nigel-farage-up-his-vote-share-in-clacton-20260707171746907") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2L8D1Y0ZB0",
"slug": "will-nigel-farage-up-his-vote-share-in-clacton-20260707171746907",
"question": "Will Nigel Farage increase his vote share in Clacton?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"uk-politics",
"clacton-constituency",
"farage",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15503,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
"url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "parliament.uk",
"url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}