Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
polymarket: [B] objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $500,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | $209 | $28K | B | 0x042a71…3f14 | ||
| ≤ $600,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | $117 | $31K | B | 0xf19307…0f91 | ||
| ≤ $700,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 29.0% | $204 | $34K | B | 0x782472…9af1 | ||
| ≤ $750,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 51.0% | $303 | $75K | B | 0xf57c3d…4de4 | ||
| ≤ $800,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 58.0% | — | $58K | B | 0x3ae127…570c | ||
| ≥ $900,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 93.0% | $19 | $48K | B | 0x6cfe7a…6242 | ||
| ≥ $1,000,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 94.0% | $844 | $44K | B | 0x6f107a…86c7 | ||
| ≥ $1,250,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 88.0% | $761 | $40K | B | 0x0a0fb7…c31a | ||
| ≥ $1,500,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 74.0% | $760 | $32K | B | 0xc71dbe…1d45 | ||
| ≥ $1,750,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 36.0% | $2.3K | $35K | B | 0xb202db…100e | ||
| ≥ $2,000,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 31.0% | $350 | $59K | B | 0x0ed3f0…9cda | ||
| ≥ $2,500,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 23.0% | $1.7K | $32K | B | 0x475c99…a0fb | ||
| ≥ $3,000,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | $160 | $15K | B | 0x62b614…1412 | ||
| ≥ $4,000,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | $2 | $12K | B | 0x192617…fa2f | ||
| ≥ $5,000,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 3.9% | $36 | $9.3K | B | 0xedbfee…71e3 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | fe.secondmarket.com | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MSMC7NQ0P3",
"slug": "will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31",
"question": "Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"openai-valuation",
"private-company-metrics",
"venture-capital",
"ai-sector",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 551652,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 78,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "fe.secondmarket.com",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}