Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by 2026? [ resolves 2026-02 – 2026-12 ]
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 | 2026-02-01 | 0.1% | — | $547K | C | 0x0888d0…ab90 | ||
| February 28 | 2026-03-01 | 0.1% | — | $451K | C | 0xc3eec0…5a6f | ||
| March 31 | 2026-04-01 | 0.1% | — | $8.55M | C | 0xd25b2f…504e | ||
| April 30 | 2026-05-01 | 0.1% | — | $1.64M | C | 0x7dca1c…3dca | ||
| May 31 | 2026-06-01 | 0.1% | — | $1.81M | C | 0xcfeec5…a533 | ||
| June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $12K | $5.99M | C | 0x43272c…1887 | ||
| December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $28K | $1.75M | C | 0x2f224f…519d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| closed | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? | polymarket | 2026-06-01 | — |
| closed | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? | polymarket | 2026-05-01 | — |
| closed | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | polymarket | 2026-04-01 | — |
| closed | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28? | polymarket | 2026-03-01 | — |
| closed | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31? | polymarket | 2026-02-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (6 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JH2ZT7R9L5",
"slug": "will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",
"question": "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran",
"reza-pahlavi",
"political-movement",
"2026",
"regime-change"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 20731292,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 41,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}