Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? [ resolves 2026-03 – 2026-12 ]

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

polymarket 7 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31	2026-03-31	0.1%	—	$8.55M	C	`0xd25b2f…504e`
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30	2026-04-30	0.1%	—	$1.64M	C	`0x7dca1c…3dca`
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31	2026-05-31	0.1%	—	$1.81M	C	`0xcfeec5…a533`
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30	2026-06-30	1.8%	$121K	$5.33M	C	`0x43272c…1887`
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28	2026-06-30	0.1%	—	$451K	C	`0xc3eec0…5a6f`
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31	2026-06-30	0.1%	—	$547K	C	`0x0888d0…ab90`
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31	2026-12-31	10.0%	$2.3K	$1.70M	C	`0x2f224f…519d`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 7 markets · share this text

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH2ZT7R9L5",
  "slug": "will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "iran",
    "reza-pahlavi",
    "political-movement",
    "2026",
    "regime-change"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 7,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 20020491,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 29,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "adversarial_ground_truth"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →