Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-03 – 2026-12 ]
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Drobysheve, Donetsk Oblast, (49°02'31.4"N 37°43'54.7"E) by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Drobysheve will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Drobysheve, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/yiAyYtTgaCyuwBJCA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 sources (8) · stated precedence rule
storymaps.arcgis.com venue-listed maps.app.goo.gl venue-listed deepstatemap.live venue-listed ISW map from rules text ISW Ukraine map committed source DeepStateMap from rules text storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 from rules text deepstatemap.live/ from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by May 31? | polymarket | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30? | polymarket | 2026-05-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by March 31? | polymarket | 2026-04-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Russia full Drobysheve capture by year-end stays a long shot 12% · $29K 24h
- Polymarket prices a full Russian capture of Drobysheve by Dec 31 at 12%, skepticism dominates.
- 84% of all-time contract volume arrived in 24 hours, this market is effectively newly active.
- Near-total volume concentration in a single session suggests a ground-movement report or battlefield update triggered fresh attention.
- Resolves YES only if Russia controls all of Drobysheve before Jan 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-russia-capture-all-of-drobysheve-by-march-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-russia-capture-all-of-drobysheve-by-march-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-russia-capture-all-of-drobysheve-by-march-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-P49JZ61TB2",
"slug": "will-russia-capture-all-of-drobysheve-by-march-31",
"question": "Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"russia-ukraine-conflict",
"military-territorial-control",
"2026",
"eastern-europe"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 182474,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
"url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "maps.app.goo.gl",
"url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/yiAyYtTgaCyuwBJCA",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "deepstatemap.live",
"url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ISW map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "ISW Ukraine map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "DeepStateMap",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "deepstatemap.live/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}