Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? [ resolves 2025-12 – 2026-12 ]
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by November 30 | 2025-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $267K | C | 0x5007b0…22ec | ||
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31 | 2025-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $551K | C | 0x250214…a233 | ||
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31 | 2025-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $247K | C | 0xd942d2…9e02 | ||
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by January 31 | 2025-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $141K | C | 0x4dfb2c…e581 | ||
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 2.1% | $158 | $57K | C | 0x7ef136…73bf | ||
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | $100 | $3.5K | C | 0xa72d5a…71ba |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.
Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FYD8DLYRM3",
"slug": "will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by",
"question": "Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"military-conflict",
"ukraine-russia",
"territorial-control",
"2025"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1266515,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 38,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}