Will Russia capture Sumy by 2025? [ resolves 2025-10 – 2027-03 ]
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg
Sumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 sources (10) · stated precedence rule
- storymaps.arcgis.com venue-listed
- polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
- polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
- maps.app.goo.gl venue-listed
- deepstatemap.live venue-listed
- ISW map from rules text · editorial
- ISW Ukraine map source of record from rules text · editorial
- DeepStateMap from rules text · editorial
- https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 from rules text · editorial
- https://deepstatemap.live/ from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? | polymarket | 2026-01-01 | — |
| closed | Will Russia capture Sumy before October? | polymarket | 2025-10-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8C7H3KYMH4",
"slug": "will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october",
"question": "Will Russia capture Sumy by 2025?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"russia-ukraine-conflict",
"territorial-control",
"military-operations",
"2025"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 717560,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 63,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
"url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "maps.app.goo.gl",
"url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "deepstatemap.live",
"url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ISW map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "ISW Ukraine map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "DeepStateMap",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}