Will Russia enter Khatnie by June 2026? [ resolves 2026-03 – 2026-12 ]
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28, | 2026-03-01 | 0.1% | — | $71K | C | 0x576ea0…57ed | ||
| March 31, | 2026-04-01 | 0.1% | — | $37K | C | 0xef3f70…84b4 | ||
| April 30, | 2026-05-01 | 0.1% | — | $6.2K | C | 0xc84ea5…2e7d | ||
| May 31, | 2026-06-01 | 1.8% | — | $38K | C | 0xa222e4…5993 | ||
| July 31, | 2026-08-01 | 0.2% | — | $43K | C | 0x4740d2…5e51 | ||
| December 31, | 2026-12-31 | 22.0% | — | $3.0K | C | 0x410262…3f7a |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Khatnie, Kharkiv Oblast, (50.121266° N, 37.565909° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 sources (6) · stated precedence rule
storymaps.arcgis.com venue-listed deepstatemap.live venue-listed ISW map from rules text ISW Ukraine map committed source DeepStateMap from rules text credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Russia reaching Khatnie by year-end priced at 25% 25% · $38K 24h
- Polymarket prices Russian forces reaching Khatnie by December 31, 2026 at exactly 25%, a clear long-shot.
- $38K in 24h is 26% of all-time volume, a steady but meaningful one-day concentration.
- Fresh volume on a Ukraine front-line contract points to renewed attention on eastern sector military activity.
- Hard December 31 deadline makes this a clean near-term read on battlefield trajectory.
- Russia entering Khatnie by year-end stays a low-odds bet 27% · $38K 24h
- Polymarket prices a 27% chance Russia enters Khatnie before December 31, odds lean against the scenario.
- 36% of all-time volume, $38K, arrived in 24 hours, pointing to a ground-condition or front-line update driving fresh bets.
- At 27%, traders are pricing meaningful but minority-case risk; the contract is live to battlefield reporting.
- Resolves YES on credible confirmation of Russian forces entering Khatnie by December 31, 2026.
- Traders pile into Russia taking Khatnie by year-end at 27% 27% · $54K 24h
- Polymarket prices 27% odds on Russian forces entering Khatnie by December 31, a meaningful but minority probability.
- $54K in 24h represents 77% of all-time volume, making this one of the most concentrated single-session surges in the batch.
- 77% of lifetime volume in one day points to a very recent tactical development or battlefield report driving fresh positioning.
- Resolves December 31, 2026; at 27% the market sees it as a live but non-base-case scenario.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-russia-enter-khatnie-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-russia-enter-khatnie-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-russia-enter-khatnie-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KR1P3ML5Y6",
"slug": "will-russia-enter-khatnie-by",
"question": "Will Russia enter Khatnie by June 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"russia-military",
"ukraine-conflict",
"territorial-control",
"2026",
"military-intervention"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 197282,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 55,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
"url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "deepstatemap.live",
"url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ISW map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "ISW Ukraine map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "DeepStateMap",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}