Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? [ resolves 2025-12 – 2026-07 ]
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by December 31 | 2025-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $75K | C | 0xaa345a…e7e1 | ||
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by January 31 | 2025-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $41K | C | 0xd3397c…b4ce | ||
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31 | 2026-03-31 | 0.1% | — | $94K | C | 0x829c1c…e6bb | ||
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by May 31 | 2026-05-31 | 0.1% | — | $4.7K | C | 0x8d5307…5612 | ||
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 5.1% | $48 | $102K | C | 0x208a4b…0610 | ||
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31 | 2026-07-31 | 14.0% | $180 | $15K | C | 0xe271ff…9e0a |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Orikhiv by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Orikhiv is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-russia-enter-orikhiv-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-russia-enter-orikhiv-by-december-31.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-russia-enter-orikhiv-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1GXR0H97W4",
"slug": "will-russia-enter-orikhiv-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"ukraine-war",
"russia-military",
"territorial-control",
"2025"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 331540,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}