Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by the settlement date? [ resolves 2026-03 – 2026-12 ]
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28, | 2026-03-01 | 0.1% | — | $36K | B | 0xaf5763…268d | ||
| March 31, | 2026-04-01 | 0.5% | — | $30K | B | 0x0bd51a…0c69 | ||
| April 30, | 2026-05-01 | 0.1% | — | $12K | B | 0x41bec5…d4b2 | ||
| May 31, | 2026-06-01 | 0.8% | — | $5.3K | B | 0x827311…31d0 | ||
| December 31, | 2026-12-31 | 18.0% | — | $8.1K | B | 0x3ab254…f103 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Pokrovskoe, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (47.984559° N, 36.228316° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 sources (7) · stated precedence rule
storymaps.arcgis.com venue-listed deepstatemap.live venue-listed ISW map from rules text ISW Ukraine map committed source https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 from rules text DeepStateMap from rules text https://deepstatemap.live/ from rules text
recent wire items
- Odds hold low as fresh volume tests Russia at Pokrovskoe 20% · $10K 24h
- 20% price reflects the market treating a Russian capture of Pokrovskoe by year-end as an unlikely but non-trivial scenario.
- 24h volume of $10K is 53% of all-time, more than half the contract's entire history traded in one day, signaling a sharp spike in attention.
- A burst of volume at this size on a thin contract typically precedes or follows a battlefield development or credible field report.
- Contract resolves December 31, 2026, on confirmed Russian control of the settlement.
- Odds stay low as fresh volume tests the Pokrovskoe advance 20% · $10K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Russian capture of Pokrovskoe by December 31 at just 20%, market leans against.
- 24h volume of $10.4K is 55% of all-time, indicating this contract is newly active.
- Fresh attention likely follows a battlefield development or logistics report near the town.
- Resolves December 31, 2026, on confirmed territorial control.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-russia-enter-pokrovskoe-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-russia-enter-pokrovskoe-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-russia-enter-pokrovskoe-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BZ1CKVQNR0",
"slug": "will-russia-enter-pokrovskoe-by",
"question": "Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by the settlement date?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"russia-ukraine-war",
"military-operations",
"donetsk-region",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 90528,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 63,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
"url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "deepstatemap.live",
"url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ISW map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "ISW Ukraine map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "DeepStateMap",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}