Will Russia invade another country in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $6.1K | $380K | C | 0x8011cf…8229 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Russia invading another country in 2026 draws fresh attention at 7% Polymarket 7%
- Polymarket prices a 7% chance Russia invades another country in 2026, with trading volume up 7,639% day over day, signaling the Kursk strike is drawing significant fresh attention.
- The IAEA's emergency call for restraint after the Kursk nuclear plant strike is the catalyst for the volume surge, though the 7% price itself remains a long shot.
- The companion Polymarket contract on a US-Russia military clash by 2026 sits at 5%, consistent with elevated concern that has not yet crossed into consensus alarm.
- Resolves via uma_oracle; the key settlement question is whether any armed cross-border action qualifies, making the definition of 'invasion' the critical edge case.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JZJP14YR11",
"slug": "will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026",
"question": "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"military-conflict",
"russia",
"international-relations",
"2026",
"state-actors"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 379589,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}