Will Spain accuse Morocco of facilitating a migrant wave into Ceuta by August 31? [ resolves 2026-08-31 (27D) ]
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31 | 2026-08-31 | 3.5% | $10K | $60K | C | 0xf004da…9858 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Spanish government explicitly claims that Moroccan authorities deliberately caused or facilitated the influx of migrants that occurred in the Spanish territory of Ceuta on July 30, 2026, by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Such a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the Spanish Central government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Moroccan authorities deliberately caused or facilitated the influx. A statement from a lawmaker speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. Statements that do not attribute deliberate intent to Morocco (e.g., "this would not have happened if Morocco spent more on border security") will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Spanish government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the Spanish government from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-spain-accuse-morocco-of-facilitating-the-ceuta-migrant-influx-by-august-31-20260731174220331/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-spain-accuse-morocco-of-facilitating-the-ceuta-migrant-influx-by-august-31-20260731174220331 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-spain-accuse-morocco-of-facilitating-the-ceuta-migrant-influx-by-august-31-20260731174220331") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BB1KQGZSK5",
"slug": "will-spain-accuse-morocco-of-facilitating-the-ceuta-migrant-influx-by-august-31-20260731174220331",
"question": "Will Spain accuse Morocco of facilitating a migrant wave into Ceuta by August 31?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"international-affairs",
"spain-morocco",
"migration",
"ceuta",
"diplomatic-accusations"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 60105,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the Spanish government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}