Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? [ resolves 2026-08-16 (12D) ]
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China | 2026-08-16 | 69.0% | $12K | $92K | B | 0xd1786c…ff03 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- jma.go.jp source of record venue-listed
- Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories from rules text · editorial
- credible international news reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-super-typhoon-dolphin-hit-china-20260730202351925/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-super-typhoon-dolphin-hit-china-20260730202351925 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-super-typhoon-dolphin-hit-china-20260730202351925") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-42X3R6TZT6",
"slug": "will-super-typhoon-dolphin-hit-china-20260730202351925",
"question": "Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"extreme-weather",
"typhoon",
"china",
"2026",
"natural-disaster"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 91824,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "jma.go.jp",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "jma.go.jp",
"url": "https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "credible international news reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}