Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled | 2026-12-31 | 99.1% | $218 | $269K | C | 0xd93366…6f07 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from the US government from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Midterm elections proceeding as scheduled near fully priced in Polymarket 99%
- The Polymarket prediction market prices the 2026 midterm elections happening as scheduled at 99%.
- Trump's explicit pledge not to attack Iran before the midterms removes the most acute near-term disruption risk; the 99% level is consistent with that signal.
- Iran's retaliatory missile strikes against Bahrain and Kuwait (Story 28) represent a live escalation risk, but the market has not priced any meaningful disruption probability.
- Resolution via uma_oracle; any official postponement or cancellation of the November 3 elections would be required for a NO settlement.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-the-2026-midterm-elections-happen-as-scheduled/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-the-2026-midterm-elections-happen-as-scheduled |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-the-2026-midterm-elections-happen-as-scheduled") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-99YJSN2LN7",
"slug": "will-the-2026-midterm-elections-happen-as-scheduled",
"question": "Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-midterms",
"electoral-integrity",
"2026",
"constitutional-process"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 268978,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the US government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}