Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $106K | $19.89M | C | 0xbb4d51…1f3b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Iranian regime survival anchors against fall-before-2027 at 9 percent Polymarket 9%
- Polymarket prices the Iranian regime falling before 2027 at 9%, a low-probability tail despite ongoing nightly US strikes.
- Seven nights of US airstrikes on infrastructure plus Iran's continued retaliation and escalatory warnings are consistent with a stressed but surviving regime scenario.
- The Kalshi contract on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iranian leader by 2026 sits at just 7%, corroborating the market's view that regime change is a remote outcome.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle based on whether the current Iranian government ceases to hold power before January 1, 2027.
- Iranian regime fall before 2027 holds as a slim tail Polymarket 9%
- Polymarket prices just 9% on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, treating escalating conflict as non-fatal to the government.
- Iran's negotiator sending messages to Washington while simultaneously widening attacks suggests durability; the market is consistent with that posture.
- At 18%, the US-invasion Polymarket contract (Story 21) also prices limited escalation, and a 9% regime-fall probability is coherent with that read.
- Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; requires an externally verifiable end to the current Iranian government structure before January 1, 2027.
- Iranian regime survival pricing holds despite US strike escalation Polymarket 8%
- Polymarket prices only 8% on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, via uma_oracle resolution, despite active US military strikes.
- Escalating US-Iran exchanges including strikes on Bushehr and Iranian missiles hitting Gulf states have not shifted the market to majority odds of regime collapse.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-BR5SMCCW00) prices 12% on Iran withdrawing from the NPT, consistent with a market that sees escalation but not existential regime threat.
- Resolves via uma_oracle; the definition of 'regime fall' is the key settlement edge case given Iran's current governmental continuity.
- Iranian regime collapse by year-end pricing holds at deeply skeptical low Polymarket 7%
- The Polymarket prediction market puts only 7% on the Iranian regime falling by December 31, 2026.
- Trump's claim that Iran accepted 'just about everything' suggests a negotiated outcome, not regime collapse, and the 7% reading is consistent with diplomacy, not destabilization.
- Companion Kalshi binary CM-EVT-V9QGT2SSP7 prices only 5% on Trump visiting Iran, signaling markets see talks as phone/proxy diplomacy, not a historic summit.
- Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; the definition of 'regime fall' is a key settlement edge case, a signed nuclear deal would not itself trigger resolution.
- Iranian regime survival pricing fractures toward resilience Polymarket 10%
- Polymarket prices only 10% on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, despite ongoing and intensifying US military strikes.
- Markets are not pricing regime change even as strikes expand geographically, suggesting capital-weighted consensus sees the conflict as degrading but not toppling the government.
- Kalshi at 7% on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iranian leader reinforces that prediction markets see regime transition as a tail scenario.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the fall of the regime would require broadly recognized loss of governmental control, a high bar given current intelligence assessments.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QNQ4VPVP80",
"slug": "will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",
"question": "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"iran-regime-stability",
"geopolitics",
"political-upheaval",
"2026",
"middle-east",
"regime-change"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19885105,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 10,
"rcg_caps": [
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}