Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | — | $97K | C | 0x47dae1…3c9e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-the-uk-designate-the-irgc-a-terrorist-organization-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-the-uk-designate-the-irgc-a-terrorist-organization-by-june-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-the-uk-designate-the-irgc-a-terrorist-organization-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5SN6B7W5V0",
"slug": "will-the-uk-designate-the-irgc-a-terrorist-organization-by-june-30",
"question": "Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"uk-policy",
"terrorism-designation",
"iran-relations",
"2026",
"geopolitics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 97046,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}