Will the US confirm that aliens exist by 2026? [ resolves 2026-04 – 2026-12 ]
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| By March 31 | 2026-04-01 | 0.1% | — | $1.94M | C | 0x1f4b7a…c929 | ||
| By April 30 | 2026-05-01 | 0.1% | — | $1.94M | C | 0x63f59b…b9ae | ||
| By May 31 | 2026-06-01 | 0.1% | — | $8.74M | C | 0xcddc04…dff4 | ||
| By June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $152K | $5.43M | C | 0xa7962b…c4cb | ||
| By September 30 | 2026-09-30 | 6.0% | $62K | $1.23M | C | 0xace3c7…62a9 | ||
| Before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $164K | $33.44M | C | 0x747dc8…1f75 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- official information from the government of the United States from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| closed | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | polymarket | 2026-06-01 | — |
| closed | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? | polymarket | 2026-05-01 | — |
| closed | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | polymarket | 2026-04-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (4 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BSCL3ZK4F0",
"slug": "will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027",
"question": "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"pop-culture",
"politics",
"us-government",
"extraterrestrial-life",
"disclosure",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 52720592,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 32,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the government of the United States",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}