Will the U.S. invade Colombia by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 4.4% | — | $27K | C | 0x12d1f0…1d3a |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Heavy flows lean against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 5% · $35K 24h
- Polymarket at 5%, market assigns deep tail probability despite ongoing bilateral friction.
- $35K in 24h is 25% of all-time volume; renewed attention without meaningful price support.
- Cartel-designation tensions and trade rhetoric have periodically refreshed this market; 5% reflects noise, not conviction.
- Full-year resolution; sustained low price suggests inflows are fading a narrative rather than building one.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-the-us-invade-colombia-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-the-us-invade-colombia-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-the-us-invade-colombia-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZTMV2RDX49",
"slug": "will-the-us-invade-colombia-in-2026",
"question": "Will the U.S. invade Colombia by the end of 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"us-foreign-policy",
"military-intervention",
"2026",
"latin-america",
"trump-administration"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 27176,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 27,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}