Will the U.S. invade Greenland by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 2.6% | $183 | $1.42M | C | 0xe723e5…0a20 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- US invasion of Greenland by end of 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 3%
- The Polymarket contract prices only a 3% chance the US invades Greenland by end of 2026.
- The trilateral diplomatic agreement announced September 18 is consistent with the market's near-zero invasion probability; the market appears to have priced a negotiated outcome.
- The companion Polymarket contract on a US-Denmark military clash before 2027 sits at 2%, reinforcing that armed conflict is treated as a tail scenario.
- Resolves via uma_oracle; the Greenland independence vote contract at 4% for 2026 suggests the market sees neither military nor democratic resolution this year.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-the-us-invade-greenland-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-the-us-invade-greenland-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-the-us-invade-greenland-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TJWVR9PXN5",
"slug": "will-the-us-invade-greenland-in-2026",
"question": "Will the U.S. invade Greenland by the end of 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"us-foreign-policy",
"greenland",
"military-intervention",
"2026",
"trump-administration"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1420222,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 41,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}