Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 3 or August 8? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-08 ]
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 8?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 3 | 2026-08-04 | 99.9% | $115 | $455 | B | 0x0463b6…0cc1 | ||
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 4 | 2026-08-04 | 1.9% | $2.5K | $8.1K | B | 0xba03e4…9a78 | ||
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 5 | 2026-08-05 | 10.0% | $135 | $2.0K | B | 0xecd5a8…808b | ||
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 6 | 2026-08-06 | 68.0% | — | $45 | B | 0x772953…f1a6 | ||
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 7 | 2026-08-07 | 41.0% | — | $167 | B | 0x08f56b…2150 | ||
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 8 | 2026-08-08 | 55.0% | $241 | $919 | B | 0xa159b6…0f3d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the White House Press Office calls a full lid for the specified date by 6:30 PM ET on that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution.
This market will resolve according to the time listed by Roll Call of the first full lid called in the daily calendar (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). If Roll Call does not list a lid time or is for any reason unavailable, this market will resolve according to Forth (https://www.forth.news/whpool).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/ sources (4) · stated precedence rule
- rollcall.com venue-listed
- forth.news venue-listed
- Roll Call source of record from rules text · editorial
- Forth from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-the-white-house-call-a-full-lid-by-630-pm-august-3-august-8-20260730202018839/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-the-white-house-call-a-full-lid-by-630-pm-august-3-august-8-20260730202018839 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-the-white-house-call-a-full-lid-by-630-pm-august-3-august-8-20260730202018839") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5K9Q5C0885",
"slug": "will-the-white-house-call-a-full-lid-by-630-pm-august-3-august-8-20260730202018839",
"question": "Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 3 or August 8?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"politics",
"white-house-operations",
"daily-lid",
"2026",
"intraday-event"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11676,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Roll Call",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "rollcall.com",
"url": "https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "forth.news",
"url": "https://www.forth.news/whpool",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Roll Call",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Forth",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}