Will Trump be impeached by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026	2026-12-31	7.0%		$1.5K	$863K		C	`0x4c8cee…2ede`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 1 market · share this text

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-64KY3VMH10",
  "slug": "will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026",
  "question": "Will Trump be impeached by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "impeachment",
    "us-congress",
    "2026",
    "presidential-politics"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 862758,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 74,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →