Will Trump publicly insult someone in July 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-07 ]
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 21, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 31 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, | 2026-07-02 | 99.9% | — | $14K | C | 0x4c485d…7b2d | ||
| 4, | 2026-07-04 | 99.9% | — | $16K | C | 0x0c4772…db54 | ||
| 3, | 2026-07-04 | 99.9% | — | $19K | C | 0xea0fac…c52f | ||
| 1, | 2026-07-04 | 99.9% | — | $22K | C | 0x19c68c…bf4c | ||
| 5, | 2026-07-07 | 98.1% | — | $15K | C | 0x129610…dccf | ||
| 6, | 2026-07-07 | 99.9% | — | $18K | C | 0x0dd68c…8178 | ||
| 8, | 2026-07-08 | 99.7% | — | $9.1K | C | 0x7c22a7…77a4 | ||
| 9, | 2026-07-11 | 0.1% | — | $12K | C | 0xe1cfd1…3e56 | ||
| 11, | 2026-07-11 | 99.9% | — | $26K | C | 0x277632…86d2 | ||
| 10, | 2026-07-12 | 0.1% | — | $27K | C | 0x006f93…6927 | ||
| 12, | 2026-07-13 | 99.9% | — | $29K | C | 0x738c3b…279b | ||
| 13, | 2026-07-13 | 99.9% | — | $8.6K | C | 0x9b3c81…877c | ||
| 14, | 2026-07-14 | 99.9% | — | $8.3K | C | 0x85657d…ee82 | ||
| 15, | 2026-07-16 | 99.9% | — | $16K | C | 0x1f9c3c…d737 | ||
| 17, | 2026-07-17 | 99.9% | — | $8.1K | C | 0x29ae61…26c5 | ||
| 18, | 2026-07-19 | 99.8% | — | $22K | C | 0x1df2af…deeb | ||
| 19, | 2026-07-20 | 99.9% | — | $12K | C | 0x9c81d2…b32b | ||
| 16, | 2026-07-21 | 0.4% | — | $21K | C | 0xab948f…23a4 | ||
| 20, | 2026-07-21 | 0.6% | — | $12K | C | 0x9ad796…abd1 | ||
| 21, | 2026-07-21 | 41.0% | — | $11K | C | 0x29035a…c295 | ||
| 22, | 2026-07-22 | 99.9% | — | $7.7K | C | 0x3cba07…d27d | ||
| 23, | 2026-07-31 | 99.0% | $7.6K | $12K | C | 0x815544…6b45 | ||
| 24, | 2026-07-31 | 93.0% | $2.1K | $6.9K | C | 0x149e4b…6b53 | ||
| 25, | 2026-07-31 | 90.0% | $38 | $3.1K | C | 0x932ec2…a5c1 | ||
| 26, | 2026-07-31 | 89.0% | $46 | $1.3K | C | 0xea08fc…a95b | ||
| 27, | 2026-07-31 | 89.0% | $132 | $1.6K | C | 0xb31e8b…0f42 | ||
| 28, | 2026-07-31 | 89.0% | $97 | $5.6K | C | 0x803807…73c4 | ||
| 29, | 2026-07-31 | 88.0% | $25 | $2.7K | C | 0x27aa3d…88be | ||
| 30, | 2026-07-31 | 88.0% | $11 | $2.5K | C | 0x54b4df…f1b8 | ||
| 31, | 2026-07-31 | 82.0% | $977 | $3.2K | C | 0x7a685e…b9e2 | ||
| 7, | 2026-07-31 | 1.9% | — | $20K | C | 0xcb213e…6872 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-trump-publicly-insult-someone-onptptpt-20260630182730878/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-trump-publicly-insult-someone-onptptpt-20260630182730878 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-trump-publicly-insult-someone-onptptpt-20260630182730878") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-7L3HYD1S09",
"slug": "will-trump-publicly-insult-someone-onptptpt-20260630182730878",
"question": "Will Trump publicly insult someone in July 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"politics",
"social-media",
"daily-behavior",
"2026",
"public-statements"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 31,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 390095,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 37,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}