Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 2 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026	2026-12-31	19.0%		—	$7.1K		C	`0xa834cb…7e90`
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026	2026-12-31	6.2%		—	$9.2K		C	`0xf46470…cf85`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	Federal Reserve (consensus fallback)	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 2 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

platform source field polymarket.resolution_source → "Federal Reserve (consensus fallback)"

recent wire items

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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-trump-try-to-fire-powell-as-fed-board-member-by/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-trump-try-to-fire-powell-as-fed-board-member-by.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("will-trump-try-to-fire-powell-as-fed-board-member-by")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HLSMT21CB5",
  "slug": "will-trump-try-to-fire-powell-as-fed-board-member-by",
  "question": "Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "politics",
    "fed-chair",
    "trump-administration",
    "executive-action",
    "fed-governance"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 2,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 16329,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 40,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve (consensus fallback)",
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →