Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-06 – 2026-12 ]
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 sources (6) · stated precedence rule
storymaps.arcgis.com venue-listed deepstatemap.live venue-listed ISW Ukraine map committed source https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 from rules text DeepStateMap from rules text https://deepstatemap.live/ from rules text
recent wire items
- Traders back long odds on Ukraine retaking Myrnohrad 6% · $36K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Ukrainian return to Myrnohrad by Dec 31 at just 6%, deep skepticism of near-term offensive success.
- 24h volume of $35K is 34% of all-time handle, a sharp single-day concentration on a low-liquidity front-line contract.
- Surge likely reflects battlefield news flow or Ukrainian operational signals drawing fresh attention to this specific city.
- Resolves Dec 31, 2026; at 6%, the market is pricing this as a tail scenario, not a base case.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-ukraine-re-enter-myrnohrad-by-may-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-ukraine-re-enter-myrnohrad-by-may-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-ukraine-re-enter-myrnohrad-by-may-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-G8QGG1QZ27",
"slug": "will-ukraine-re-enter-myrnohrad-by-may-31",
"question": "Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"ukraine-russia-conflict",
"territorial-control",
"military-operations",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 82615,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
"url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "deepstatemap.live",
"url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ISW Ukraine map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "DeepStateMap",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}