US crude oil reserves fall to 225M by August 31 [ resolves 2026-09-08 (47D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 225M | 2026-09-08 | 1.0% | — | $206 | A | 0xa0606b…9e96 | ||
| 240M | 2026-09-08 | 3.9% | — | $579 | A | 0x43649f…4466 | ||
| 255M | 2026-09-08 | 8.0% | $806 | $2.0K | A | 0xa7a646…72ad | ||
| 270M | 2026-09-08 | 19.0% | $62 | $383 | A | 0xca2e7f…317c | ||
| 285M | 2026-09-08 | 70.0% | $3.6K | $9.3K | A | 0x0b1b3c…c284 | ||
| 300M | 2026-09-08 | 97.9% | $34 | $1.5K | A | 0xba964b…747f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.
If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.
Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W sources (3) · single authority
- eia.gov venue-listed
- U.S. Energy Information Administration source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-august-28-20260714142248732/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-august-28-20260714142248732 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-august-28-20260714142248732") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LYG4F1F079",
"slug": "will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-august-28-20260714142248732",
"question": "US crude oil reserves fall to 225M by August 31",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-energy",
"crude-oil",
"commodity-prices",
"economic-indicator",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14016,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "eia.gov",
"url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}